Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Election Predictions

Tuesday, November 6, is Election Day for all state and county offices. I've decided to stick my neck out and make predictions about the outcomes.

COUNTY

SUPERVISOR FOR DISTRICT 1: I feel confident that the voters will return Republican Sammy Cauthen to office and reject the candidacy of his problematic challenger Democrat Mike Lazarus.

SUPERVISOR FOR DISTRICT 2: Republican Joe Eidt will easily defeat incumbent Democrat Henry Watts.

STATE

GOVERNOR: Republican Haley Barbour will defeat Democrat John Eaves, but it will be closer than people think. Eaves has served a good purpose by showing Mississippians that Barbour is not the superhero he makes himself out to be. Hopefully, this election will cause citizens to keep a closer eye on what their Governor is doing to them. I will be voting for Eaves, because I think Barbour is a very smart crook who doesn't give a hill of beans for regular Mississipians.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR: This race is really too close to call. Republican Phil Bryant may pull it off, not because he is a better choice, but because so much money has been spent on his race, thanks to all the usual big money donors, like casinos, insurance companies, tobacco companies, etc. Democrat Jamie Franks started off with less statewide recognition and had an uphill battle. He did well in fundraising, including support from author John Grisham, but it's hard to compete against those independent attacks ads. He was a major target for the State Republican party.

ATTORNEY GENERAL: Democrat Jim Hood wins easily over Republican Al Hopkins.

SECRETARY OF STATE: Republican Delbert Hosemann will defeat Democrat Rob Smith, partially because of his clever ads.

STATE TREASURER: This is not even a race, since Democrat Shawn O'Hara is not a credible candidate and isn't even supported by his party. Republican Tate Reeves wins without a problem.

STATE AUDITOR: This race is considered close. However, I'm going to predict the winner will be Democrat Mike Sumrall, simply because he is such an extremely qualified candidate. The Republican Stacy Pickering has no credentials for this position and is only competitive because of his last name.

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER: Democrat Gary Anderson upset the incumbent in the Primary, because Mississippians have learned first hand what it's like to have an Insurance Commissioner beholden to the insurance companies. And I predict another upset next week. Anderson has refused all donations from insurance companies and sees his role as the protector of the consumer. His opponent Republican Mike Chaney is openly funded and supported by the insurance companies, and that's who he'll represent if elected.

COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE. Agriculture is at least 30% of Mississippi's economy, which makes this an important position. The incumbent Republican Lester Spell has been around too long and has made too many expensive mistakes (the $55 million beef plant, the goat meat cooperative, closing the beloved Jackson Farmers Market, etc). He's a goner. On the other hand, Democrat Ricky Cole is energetic, charismatic, and full of exciting ideas - plus he's a born and bred farmer. He's the definite winner.

I'll be back after the election to brag and eat crow.

DON'T FORGET TO VOTE ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 6!!
All registered voters are eligible to vote. The Party Primary you voted in makes no difference.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

what about highway commissioner?

Anonymous said...

A good friend of mine is an Eaves staffer. Word from inside the campaign is that they really didn't expect to win on this election cycle, but were interested in getting Eaves' name out there. Their real target is 2011.

Anonymous said...

I will be glad when its all over. All the anti campaigns for state offices have really turned me off.

U.S. News had a poll several months ago on the Most Respected Jobs, 1-10.

Politicians were 3rd just behind used car salespeople and telemarketers.

Will Jones said...

I cannot imagine supporting John Eaves. All politicians pander for votes, but Eaves is out of control. As a Christian, though a liberal one, I cannot stand his blatant exploitation of Christ and the Church. Separation of Church and State wasn't meant to protect the State from the Church (in my opinion) is was to protect the Church from the State and from turning Christianity, Judaism, Islam, or whatever into political parties. Casey, I understand you don't like Governor Barbour, but please will you explain to me how you could support someone who's only message is what the Governor's done wrong and how he's "principled?"

Prayer in school? Money changers? This guy would be laughed out of the State by Democrats if he were a Republican, yet now they support OVERLY and exclusive Christian views? It's simply amazing.

Anonymous said...

So Far Casey your predictions (at least locally are way wrong.

I am truly shocked that Sammy lost and so badly. I was worried that Henry would lose but fortunately he did well (I suspect that many of his supporters did not live in his district - based on signs he had it with a landslide)

I am sure Haley will win easily, looks like Phil has the Lt. Gov. and most of the republicans are doing well. I don't think Al will defeat Jim Hood though.

Early yet though.

Anonymous said...

Casey,

Your predictions are fortunately way off.

Well done Henry, I hope Mike will do a good job - I only know what I read about him on the blogs - I hope that was the usual Natchez Republican party's smear campaign and that he will be a good supervisor. I voted for him as I have never been impressed by Sammy.
( I know the local Republican party fights dirty - I have crossed paths with their tactics personally -- they are desperate to add more Republicans in Adams County - Be careful if you ever are in a race against a Natchez Republican!)

I am shocked how well the Republicans did statewide (Helped by Haley's ample funding.) I am a Republican and voted for almost a straight party ticket (except not Sammy, Larry Benefield, and Al Hopkins.